Microblog: Tradesmith’s Predictive Alpha Prime Service (2024)

Victor J Leo

January 28, 2024 8:12 pm

The system is kind of a joke. Here’s my experience. The whole thing started out great. I bought at the end of June, 2023. In the next five weeks, I netted $22,000 in profits. I thought it was amazing. But then, between August and October, 2023, I lost approximately $17,000, leaving me $5000 ahead. In November and December I netted profits of about $25,000, again thinking this was fantastic. Then they went into the dumper. They recommended Tesla at $256.45 per share; the stock has dropped all the way to $185 (in just a few weeks). They recommended ETSY at $90 and it dropped to $67.34 when they recommended selling. They recommended ENPH at $135.30 and within two weeks it was down to $117. They recommended GO, WELL, WM, MOH and FSLR – all of which have lost significant amounts. In other words, their last NINE recommendations have all lost money – and significant amounts of money! The last nine recommendations in a row have been colossal dogs! They are still advertising this thing as having a 77% win rate (which I achieved in the first five weeks I was using their system), but they seem to not recognize all the losses. If I really went back and looked, I think they may be at about 50% maybe a little bit below maybe a little bit above. But some of these recommendations have been absolute nightmares! Overall I’m down about $20,000! And, their weekly updates are really kind of funny. They review outstanding trades, which may be down, but then they always say we believe this is going to head back up and hit the target price. If they have told you to sell one of the recommendations at a loss in the last week, they just don’t mention it in the weekly update. I can almost see them smirking as they spin this BS. I’m in it for a year so I will continue to watch it and maybe gamble a little bit more but it is certainly not what they’re trying to tell everybody it is!

John B. Murdock

February 11, 2024 2:15 am

I watched their video and called to ask for a trial with a money-back cash refund rather than credit for other service, and they agreed, so I subscribed ($1799). This was after listening to their January promo pushed by Oxford Club with Alex Greene and Marc Lichtenfeld extolling this AI system , “An-E” as the best ever stock-picking tool, one that they are using themselves. The promo was long, and gave numerous examples with charts of the date of predictions and the resulting rise or fall as predicted within 2-3 months or less. Very precise predictions that actually came true. seemed too good to be true. So as soon as I got the whole enchilada and found their list of 59 closed trades for all of 2023 through Feb 8, 2024, I saw at least as many reds (loss) as green (gains) in the exit positions. I tallied them up and their trades resulted in 47% as losers, and of those losses, at least 71% were in double digits. Their gains (53% of total trades) showed a high percentage (74%) of small, sngle-digit gains. Obviously this record doesn’t mesh with the promised results in the promo, so I have written to both Tradesmith and Oxford Club to ask where I have erred in my calculations. I will certainly wait for an answer about my math errors, or alternatively about their failure to disclose this track record in the promo, before making any of their recommended trades (or asking for the cash refund.) I would love to be proven wrong, but a loss rate of 47%, if I am correct, is worse than the dartboard method. At least a dart player knows his or her own skill level and can bet accordingly. With “An-E”, you are not using your skill level, you are relying on some mysterious AI that cannot be explained in lay terms, so don’t even ask.(I have tested AI on legal issues and found that it just made up answers with no basis in fact or law, complete fictions.)
I would recommend caution before parting with $1799, and you also should consult the complaints online at BBB, some folks lost money using this predictive profits system and demanded their money back.

February 19, 2024 5:38 am

I subscribe to this service. Have been in it since its inception. My own experience is that it runs hot and cold. In roughly the past couple of months, the recommendations are mostly cold. Since I invest very little in any of their recommendations, I have lost a bit over the past couple of months, but overall I am still slightly in the green. Recently, whenever they recommend to buy something, I turn around and sell OTM puts on it instead (if its optionable, and if the premium is worth the hassle). Using this methodology, I continue to make money on their recommendations, but not in the manner they intended for the trade. BTW, their other service by Jason Bodner (Quantum Edge Pro) has been very good.

Olga

February 28, 2024 4:09 pm

Has anyone tried PREDICTIVE ALPHA OPTIONS? Keith Kaplan calls it An-E 2.0 and says it is brand new AI-powered options systems with 89% success rate

John Murdock

February 28, 2024 4:32 pm

David Lee Shuford

March 10, 2024 9:34 am

Carlos Ortega

March 19, 2024 12:04 pm

Just completed a 3-month trial (2M inputs, 30DTE options, I had the Lite version, only 4 estimates per week), not great results. Every one of TradeSmith’s alerts was a loss (relative to their prediction for 30DTE/21 trading days). Of my tests, using butterflies on IWM, SPY, QQQ, and DIA, there were no pins, 15 losses (outside range), and 13 non-losses (within the range on expiration day for a few bucks). The promise is 99% correct at 30DTE so of course I thought butterfly, but in fact, not worth the intro rate unless you’re going to get way more active and use interim results. In the past 3 months any neutral 30DTE butterfly would have made money at some point within the 30 DTE, but if An-E *worked* I’d have made a killling.

Paul

April 5, 2024 5:50 pm